Mathematical Modeling of the Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of Novel Influenza A (H1N1)
Identifieur interne : 000C14 ( Pmc/Checkpoint ); précédent : 000C13; suivant : 000C15Mathematical Modeling of the Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of Novel Influenza A (H1N1)
Auteurs : Samantha M. Tracht [États-Unis] ; Sara Y. Del Valle [États-Unis] ; James M. Hyman [États-Unis]Source :
- PLoS ONE [ 1932-6203 ] ; 2010.
Abstract
On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) a pandemic. With limited supplies of antivirals and vaccines, countries and individuals are looking at other ways to reduce the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, particularly options that are cost effective and relatively easy to implement. Recent experiences with the 2003 SARS and 2009 H1N1 epidemics have shown that people are willing to wear facemasks to protect themselves against infection; however, little research has been done to quantify the impact of using facemasks in reducing the spread of disease. We construct and analyze a mathematical model for a population in which some people wear facemasks during the pandemic and quantify impact of these masks on the spread of influenza. To estimate the parameter values used for the effectiveness of facemasks, we used available data from studies on N95 respirators and surgical facemasks. The results show that if N95 respirators are only 20% effective in reducing susceptibility and infectivity, only 10% of the population would have to wear them to reduce the number of influenza A (H1N1) cases by 20%. We can conclude from our model that, if worn properly, facemasks are an effective intervention strategy in reducing the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0009018
PubMed: 20161764
PubMed Central: 2818714
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Tracht</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Energy and Infrastructure Analysis Group, Decisions Applications Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Energy and Infrastructure Analysis Group, Decisions Applications Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region></placeName></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff2"><addr-line>Department of Mathematics, Computer Science, and Physics, Capital University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Mathematics, Computer Science, and Physics, Capital University, Columbus, Ohio</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Ohio</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Del Valle, Sara Y" sort="Del Valle, Sara Y" uniqKey="Del Valle S" first="Sara Y." last="Del Valle">Sara Y. Del Valle</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff1"><addr-line>Energy and Infrastructure Analysis Group, Decisions Applications Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Energy and Infrastructure Analysis Group, Decisions Applications Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Hyman, James M" sort="Hyman, James M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="James M." last="Hyman">James M. Hyman</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="aff3"><addr-line>Mathematical Modeling and Analysis Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America</addr-line></nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><wicri:regionArea>Mathematical Modeling and Analysis Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico</wicri:regionArea><placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region></placeName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS ONE</title><idno type="eISSN">1932-6203</idno><imprint><date when="2010">2010</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) a pandemic. With limited supplies of antivirals and vaccines, countries and individuals are looking at other ways to reduce the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, particularly options that are cost effective and relatively easy to implement. Recent experiences with the 2003 SARS and 2009 H1N1 epidemics have shown that people are willing to wear facemasks to protect themselves against infection; however, little research has been done to quantify the impact of using facemasks in reducing the spread of disease. We construct and analyze a mathematical model for a population in which some people wear facemasks during the pandemic and quantify impact of these masks on the spread of influenza. To estimate the parameter values used for the effectiveness of facemasks, we used available data from studies on N95 respirators and surgical facemasks. The results show that if N95 respirators are only 20% effective in reducing susceptibility and infectivity, only 10% of the population would have to wear them to reduce the number of influenza A (H1N1) cases by 20%. We can conclude from our model that, if worn properly, facemasks are an effective intervention strategy in reducing the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Germann, Tc" uniqKey="Germann T">TC Germann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kadau, K" uniqKey="Kadau K">K Kadau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ira M Longini, J" uniqKey="Ira M Longini J">J Ira M Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Macken, Ca" uniqKey="Macken C">CA Macken</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Pasteur, S" uniqKey="Pasteur S">S Pasteur</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Mcshane, L" uniqKey="Mcshane L">L McShane</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lo, Jyc" uniqKey="Lo J">JYC 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<front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="nlm-ta">PLoS One</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="iso-abbrev">PLoS ONE</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">plos</journal-id><journal-id journal-id-type="pmc">plosone</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title>PLoS ONE</journal-title></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1932-6203</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Public Library of Science</publisher-name><publisher-loc>San Francisco, USA</publisher-loc></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="pmid">20161764</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="pmc">2818714</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">09-PONE-RA-14015</article-id><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1371/journal.pone.0009018</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="Discipline"><subject>Infectious Diseases</subject><subject>Mathematics</subject><subject>Infectious Diseases/Epidemiology and Control of Infectious Diseases</subject><subject>Public Health and Epidemiology/Epidemiology</subject><subject>Public Health and Epidemiology/Infectious Diseases</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Mathematical Modeling of the Effectiveness of Facemasks in Reducing the Spread of Novel Influenza A (H1N1)</article-title><alt-title alt-title-type="running-head">Effectiveness of Facemasks</alt-title></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Tracht</surname><given-names>Samantha M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2"><sup>2</sup></xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1"><sup>*</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Del Valle</surname><given-names>Sara Y.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1"><sup>1</sup></xref></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author"><name><surname>Hyman</surname><given-names>James M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3"><sup>3</sup></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><addr-line>Energy and Infrastructure Analysis Group, Decisions Applications Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><addr-line>Department of Mathematics, Computer Science, and Physics, Capital University, Columbus, Ohio, United States of America</addr-line></aff><aff id="aff3"><label>3</label><addr-line>Mathematical Modeling and Analysis Group, Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America</addr-line></aff><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="editor"><name><surname>Carter</surname><given-names>Dee A.</given-names></name><role>Editor</role><xref ref-type="aff" rid="edit1"></xref></contrib></contrib-group><aff id="edit1">University of Sydney, Australia</aff><author-notes><corresp id="cor1">* E-mail: <email>samantha.tracht@gmail.com</email></corresp><fn fn-type="con"><p>Conceived and designed the experiments: SMT SDV JMH. Performed the experiments: SMT. Analyzed the data: SMT SDV JMH. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: SMT SDV JMH. Wrote the paper: SMT SDV JMH.</p></fn></author-notes><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2010</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>10</day><month>2</month><year>2010</year></pub-date><volume>5</volume><issue>2</issue><elocation-id>e9018</elocation-id><history><date date-type="received"><day>3</day><month>11</month><year>2009</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>29</day><month>11</month><year>2009</year></date></history><permissions><copyright-statement>Tracht et al.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2010</copyright-year><license xlink:href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/"><license-p>This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are properly credited.</license-p></license></permissions><abstract><p>On June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of novel influenza A (H1N1) a pandemic. With limited supplies of antivirals and vaccines, countries and individuals are looking at other ways to reduce the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009, particularly options that are cost effective and relatively easy to implement. Recent experiences with the 2003 SARS and 2009 H1N1 epidemics have shown that people are willing to wear facemasks to protect themselves against infection; however, little research has been done to quantify the impact of using facemasks in reducing the spread of disease. We construct and analyze a mathematical model for a population in which some people wear facemasks during the pandemic and quantify impact of these masks on the spread of influenza. To estimate the parameter values used for the effectiveness of facemasks, we used available data from studies on N95 respirators and surgical facemasks. The results show that if N95 respirators are only 20% effective in reducing susceptibility and infectivity, only 10% of the population would have to wear them to reduce the number of influenza A (H1N1) cases by 20%. We can conclude from our model that, if worn properly, facemasks are an effective intervention strategy in reducing the spread of pandemic (H1N1) 2009.</p></abstract><counts><page-count count="12"></page-count></counts></article-meta></front></pmc><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Nouveau-Mexique</li><li>Ohio</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Nouveau-Mexique"><name sortKey="Tracht, Samantha M" sort="Tracht, Samantha M" uniqKey="Tracht S" first="Samantha M." last="Tracht">Samantha M. Tracht</name></region><name sortKey="Del Valle, Sara Y" sort="Del Valle, Sara Y" uniqKey="Del Valle S" first="Sara Y." last="Del Valle">Sara Y. Del Valle</name><name sortKey="Hyman, James M" sort="Hyman, James M" uniqKey="Hyman J" first="James M." last="Hyman">James M. Hyman</name><name sortKey="Tracht, Samantha M" sort="Tracht, Samantha M" uniqKey="Tracht S" first="Samantha M." last="Tracht">Samantha M. Tracht</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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